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CEO of Conductor says established SEO platforms will beat AEO/GEO startups, predicting 95% will flatline into the SaaS abyss.
The CEO of Conductor started a LinkedIn discussion about the future of AI SEO platforms, suggesting that the established companies will dominate and that 95 percent of the startups will disappear. Others argued that smaller companies will find their niche and that startups may be better positioned to serve user needs.
Besmertnik published his thoughts on why top platforms like Conductor, Semrush, and Ahrefs are better positioned to provide the tools users will need for AI chatbot and search visibility. He argued that the established companies have over a decade of experience crawling the web and scaling data pipelines, with which smaller organizations cannot compete.
Conductor’s CEO wrote:
“Over 30 new companies offering AI tracking solutions have popped up in the last few months. A few have raised some capital to get going. Here’s my take: The incumbents will win. 95% of these startups will flatline into the SaaS abyss.
…We work with 700+ enterprise brands and have 100+ engineers, PMs, and designers. They are all 100% focused on an AI search only future. …Collectively, our companies have hundreds of millions of ARR and maybe 1000x more engineering horsepower than all these companies combined.
Sure we have some tech debt and legacy. But our strengths crush these disadvantages…
…Most of the AEO/GEO startups will be either out of business or 1-3mm ARR lifestyle businesses in ~18 months. One or two will break through and become contenders. One or two of the largest SEO ‘incumbents’ will likely fall off the map…”
Besmertnik’s remarks suggested that smaller tool companies earning one to three million dollars in annual recurring revenue, what he termed “lifestyle” businesses, would continue as viable companies but stood no chance of moving upward to become larger and more established enterprise-level platforms.
Rand Fishkin, cofounder of SparkToro, defended the smaller “lifestyle” businesses, saying that it feels like cheating at business, happiness, and life.
He wrote:
“Nothing better than a $1-3M ARR “lifestyle” business.
…Let me tell you what I’m never going to do: serve Fortune 500s (nevermind 100s). The bureaucracy, hoops, and friction of those orgs is the least enjoyable, least rewarding, most avoid-at-all-costs thing in my life.”
Not to put words into Rand’s mouth but it seems that what he’s saying is that it’s absolutely worthwhile to scale a business to a point where there’s a work-life balance that makes sense for a business owner and their “lifestyle.”
Not everyone agreed that established brands would successfully transition from SEO tools to AI search, arguing that startups are not burdened by legacy SEO ideas and infrastructure, and are better positioned to create AI-native solutions that more accurately follow how users interact with AI chatbots and search.
Daniel Rodriguez, cofounder of Beewhisper, suggested that the next generation of winners may not be “better Conductors,” but rather companies that start from a completely different paradigm based on how AI users interact with information. His point of view suggests that legacy advantages may not be foundations for building strong AI search tools, but rather are more like anchors, creating a drag on forward advancement.
He commented:
“You’re 100% right that the incumbents’ advantages in crawling, data processing, and enterprise relationships are immense.
The one question this raises for me is: Are those advantages optimized for the right problem? All those strengths are about analyzing the static web – pages, links, and keywords.
But the new user journey is happening in a dynamic, conversational layer on top of the web. It’s a fundamentally different type of data that requires a new kind of engine.
My bet is that the 1-2 startups that break through won’t be the ones trying to build a better Conductor. They’ll be the ones who were unburdened by legacy and built a native solution for understanding these new conversational journeys from day one.”
Mike Mallazzo, Ads + Agentic Commerce @ PayPal, questioned whether there’s a market to support multiple breakout startups and suggested that venture capital interest in AEO and GEO startups may not be rational. He believes that the market is there for modest, capital-efficient companies rather than fund-returning unicorns.
Mallazzo commented:
“I admire the hell out of you and SEMRush, Ahrefs, Moz, etc– but y’all are all a different breed imo– this is a space that is built for reasonably capital efficient, profitable, renegade pirate SaaS startups that don’t fit the Sand Hill hyper venture scale mold. Feels like some serious Silicon Valley naivete fueling this funding run….
Even if AI fully eats search, is the analytics layer going to be bigger than the one that formed in conventional SEO? Can more than 1-2 of these companies win big?”
Right now it feels like the industry is still figuring out what is necessary to track, what is important for AI visibility. For example, brand mentions is emerging as an important metric, but is it really? Will brand mentions put customers in the ecommerce checkout cart?
And then there’s the reality of zero click searches, the idea that AI Search significantly wipes out the consideration stage of the customer’s purchasing journey, the data is not there, it’s swallowed up in zero click searches. So if you’re going to talk about tracking user’s journey and optimizing for it, this is a piece of the data puzzle that needs to be solved.
Michael Bonfils, a 30-year search marketing veteran, raised these questions in a discussion about zero click searches and what to do to better survive it, saying:
“This is, you know, we have a funnel, we all know which is the awareness consideration phase and the whole center and then finally the purchase stage. The consideration stage is the critical side of our funnel. We’re not getting the data. How are we going to get the data?
So who who is going to provide that? Is Google going to eventually provide that? Do they? Would they provide that? How would they provide that?
But that’s very important information that I need because I need to know what that conversation is about. I need to know what two people are talking about that I’m talking about …because my entire content strategy in the center of my funnel depends on that greatly.”
There’s a real question about what type of data these companies are providing to fill the gaps. The established platforms were built for the static web, keyword data, and backlink graphs. But the emerging reality of AI search is personalized and queryless. So, as Michael Bonfils suggested, the buyer journeys may occur entirely within AI interfaces, bypassing traditional SERPs altogether, which is the bread and butter of the established SEO tool companies.
If the future of search is not about search results and the attendant search query volumes but a dynamic dialogue, the kinds of data that matter and the systems that can interpret them will change. Will startups that specialize in tracking and interpreting conversational interactions become the dominant SEO tools? Companies like Conductor have a track record of expertly pivoting in response to industry needs, so how it will all shake out remains to be seen.
Read the original post on LinkedIn by Conductor CEO, Seth Besmertnik.
Featured Image by Shutterstock/Gorodenkoff
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